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| Six and Eleven |
| 04.25.04 (5:05 pm) [edit] |
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Things haven't gone the Royals way this season. Today, Kelly Stinett, Andres Blanco, and Mendy Lopez were in the lineup with no Mike Sweeney. The Royals are hurting. The pitching is scraping its way to mediocrity but the wheels on our potential juggernaut offense are beginning to squeak. Already the wealth of depth and pinch hitting options on our bench has been depleted by injuries. Moving Leskanic to closer has somehow cost us wins because he has pitched about as badly as he possibly can. The Royals need a sweep here soon. This ship needs to right itself and what's left of our rotation has to put some innings on the board without those crooked numbers appearing.
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| What is the objective of being objective? |
| 04.20.04 (11:09 am) [edit] |
Recently I was verbally attacked by a member of the Knights of the Holy Loaiza. A clandestine organization whose goal is quite simply the glorification of all things Pale hose. A lot of words were thrown around the most notable of which were: biased, insane, ridiculous. All adjectives referring to my outlook on baseball. Am I biased for the Royals? Probably. Am I biased when I write about anything else? Actually no. My reactions to sports are completely counter to how I react to anything else in my life. For example, if I do bad on an exam.. and by bad I mean D/F bad then I shrug it off. There is always another one. If my car is sliding perpendicular to an icy road while going sixty miles per hour, I'm pretty calm... As long as I don't hit anything hard I should survive. But when the Royals blow a game in the ninth inning due to errors and walks after tying it in the top with 4 runs than I explode. I usually break a chair or a window. Sometimes I punch a hole in a wall and generally speaking it can be surmised that I'm in a bad mood for the rest of the day.
Could this be the source of my general bias? Certainly. But I'd rather be biased about something as divided and trivial as sports than about something like politics. Recently Anne Coulter came to my school, Penn St. She has gone on record as declaring all liberals traitors to the U.S. She's written books about it such as: Treason, Liberal Treachery from the Cold War to the War on Terrorism. Just let the title sink in. Anne Coulter is quite simply the most fanatical political engine since Joseph Goebbels. The propaganda minister for the National Socialist Party of Germany round the 30's and 40's. She came to PSU and talked about her general ideals for about 30 mins. Then came the question session. She answered nothing. Question her beliefs and she deflects with sarcasm and spite. The worst part about Coulter is that she doesn't even defend her views so much as she simply pontificates them. Its almost religious in nature. The church says don't do this because its bad. Why is it bad? Because I said so, and if you don't believe it then your going to Hell. Now I'm not going to rail against religion today, but in no way, shape, or form should any political ideology or system be modeled after or comparable to religion. The seperation of church and state was one of the most brilliant tenants of our founding fathers and protects us from many of the dangerous side effects of state sponsored worship.
But back to the task. When I look at a political issue, such as the War in Iraq I break it down like this. Why are we going? Our current administration says to fight the war on terror. Ok, how many terrorist organizations are centralized in Iraq? Not many? Why? Because Saddam Hussein is a ruler by force, not by religious doctrine, hereditary lineage, or skill. If you are a ruthless dictator then you don't permit other archetypes( international terrorists) to live in your nation for fear of two things: A) They may develop a following and pose a threat to your power base. B) It may give an excuse to the U.S. to invade and completely destroy your rule. Another interesting quirk of Islamic terrorists is that they are deeply and very irrationally religious. Saddam Hussein is an atheist. His nation was one of the most secular in the region and any religious connections that Saddam made with Islam were superficial at best.
So why are we going? Well have you ever met some of the cabinet members of Bush's entourage? Wolfowitz? Rumsfield? These guys are old guard cold warriors and sabre rattlers. They were Reaganites, they served under Bush Sr., and many believe they blame their defeat by Bill Clinton in 92' on the fact that they didn't depose Saddam Hussein. So fast forward 12 years and another election is on the horizon. You have a war on terror as an excuse to give you free range to go after pricey political targets for the upcoming race for the presidency. Is it so hard to believe that we are there because they believed that an easy victory over an opponent who they have waged a PR war against for more than a decade would help them keep their jobs for four more years? I don't think they anticipated the difficulties of pacifying the Iraqi populace, however the only reason that Saddam Hussein has been endured by the rest of the Middle East for so long is because he reined in the Sunni/Shiite and Kurdish factions, preventing civil war that could spread into other Middle Eastern countries. Which if it happened would destabilize the neighboring Saudi Royal family and cause a massive oil price flux. Which would threaten the global economy with recession. These are things that should have been brought up by the Democrats.
Instead, before the war many Democrats were afraid to challenge the authority of the president and the popularity he engendered. Now that things are going south they are just now speaking up but with poor intentions and accusations. The party line and the liberal tact has been that this war was to fund Cheney and Bush's buddies for oil. The biggest problem with that theory is that both of these individuals are both A) disgustingly rich, and B) ridiculously powerful. Petty fiscal maneuvers at this point don't really carry a lot of weight. That and any company that feels that Iraq is a safe, long term investment is completely wacked, oil or no. How many facilities will be blown up before you break even? Or better yet, how many will be taken over when the country goes Iranian and seizes your assets for national interests. The Democrats have no exit strategy, and they still don't know how to argue against this war. So they attack oil interests and the infamous WMD proclamation.
Oh yeah, look the day Saddam has A weapon of mass destruction, the Israeli special forces will go in, blow it up, and kill anybody attached to the program. Because despite what you've been told, we would have had prior warning of a nuclear strike from Saddam because he would have nuked Israel first. Anybody that doesn't believe that needs to read a book. And.. nuclear weapons cost money, lots and lots of money. Funds that Saddam hasn't had because: his economy is crippled and he has to spend most of his resources bribing enough Republican guards to keep putting down the insurgents in his own country.
And the ultimate reason that Saddam was not a threat to the U.S? Because he had one of the most luxurious lives of anyone in the world perhaps? If you could funnel almost all of your nations resources into your own personal wealth would you threaten that for some personal stroke of vendetta? Would you risk your palaces and your power base to make a gesture that would ultimately bring about your destruction? Our media had made out Saddam to be a coward for so long I wondered why they would also buy that he would have the courage to essentially strap a bomb to his chest and give our nation a needle prick. Come on people..
Sorry.. Wow that was long. But if somebody asks me why the Royals are losing? My objective reply is: bad luck, we will be above .500 before you know it and the division is still ours. Why? Because its a game stupid. This is baseball. Why should I be objective? How many fans have you met of the opposition that were objective? How many have come to your stadium dressed in the oppositions regalia and spouted nonsense for 3 hours until you want to bash their head in with a brick? Every game I've been into at the K there were at least 5 of them in my immediate section. And if there were anything around the K worth getting drunk at, I could have given them the beating they deserved. My point is: This is Royalrevival, if you don't like the Royals or just don't like my writing maybe you shouldn't read this. Thanks for enduring this convoluted and disgustingly political essay.
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| People throw around the term unblowuppable... |
| 04.18.04 (3:20 pm) [edit] |
But in case you haven't noticed the royals starting pitching is singlehandedly proving that spontaneous combustion does exist. Darrell May struck out 8 hitters today but still got lit up like a Christmas tree. Our overall ERA is over 6.00. Our DIPS ERA is under 5.00. We have hit 22 homeruns in 12 games. We are 4-8. We haven't played the Yankees, Sox, or for that matter anyone that we didn't have a winning record against last year. But apparently that doesn't matter. I could offer up statistics or meaningless dribble like the team lacks heart right now. But it boils down to this.
In Judaism there is a phenomenon known as the Cycle of Apostasy. The general machine can be translated into other religions and retitled as things like Karma. Basically when the Jewish people did not behave religiously for a period of time then God smote them with slavery and destruction. The destruction of the Temple, the Babylonian Captivity, there are even some that would argue their issues with the Palestinians today are connected to the Vicious cycle of sin.
Well folks, the royals have been struck with awful luck. Our starters are pitching as awful as possible, below replacement level, even the one with Ace stuff. Our bullpen has reverted, and our defense has had a penchant for making awful plays when they count the most. There must be some rational explanation for this but I have decided to ignore it. Clearly, the Royals are being struck down due to the sins of their heathen fans. Last year, when the Royals were outperforming their pythagorean record you were kinder to your fellow man. You went to church and swore less. Now you are a pagan idolater who curses so much that it'd make George Carlin blush. Last year you told your kids how happy they made you when they picked up that recorder in music lessons. This year you told them that its just a glorified kazoo that could be played by a neanderthal. Last year you looked forward to every day with a smile on your face and a jump in your step. This year you look forward to your Paxil/Prozac cocktail and the blessed silence when your significant other shuts up and goes to sleep. If you want the royals to win than maybe you should be nicer to your fellow man and break the vicious cycle before it claims the entire season...
Ah screw it.. If you want the royals to win and are right-handed, go buy a radar gun and time your fastball. If you can throw faster than nine.. eighty-five then send your tape to Allard Baird as quickly as possible. Hell if you can consistently throw a strike send a tape to Baird and maybe you can stop relying on other people to solve your problems and fix them yourself.
Correction: we did not have a winning record against Chicago last year. Credit that bastard RR69.
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| Tough loss in Extras.. |
| 04.15.04 (6:22 pm) [edit] |
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Anderson goes 7 but only because he got killed early in the count. Carrasco gives up a Bottom of the 10th homer to Magglio on what was a decent slider low in the zone. Credit to Maggs. Anyways our starters continue to pitch as badly as humanly possible. Yet we are still just 4-5.. bring on the Twins.
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| Yes! Are you kidding me! What a.. NOOOO!!!! |
| 04.14.04 (8:03 pm) [edit] |
The Royals walked into yet another 9th inning down 3 runs today. And for the third time they came back and tied it up. A Beltran 2 run shot tied the game and Sweeney's susequent solo shot gave us a 9-8 lead going into the the Bottom of the 9th. Unfortunately Curtis Leskanic went critical and decided to meltdown in what would have been yet another improbable victory for the Royals. Unlike most games that I have to monitor via the internet I actually got to watch Leskanic display absolutely abysmal control interrupted only by Mendy Lopez's booted attempt at a double play. This was Leskanic's third save attempt and neither of his first two were overly impressive. His control wasn't even close today. His fastball was consistently missing sometimes being several feet from where Santiago set up. I'm not ready to jump all over Leskanic but it seems to be that his control must be the result of mechanical issues/overthrowing. Until these things are straightened out I'd prefer that someone else close. I'm not little Mac's biggest supporter but I'm actually looking forward to seeing him return to the closer role. His control was very sharp during the final month of the season and if he can drop his walk rates to just tolerable levels his groundball ratio and ability to keep the ball in the park will make him dominant.
I had some further analysis prepared but ya know what? Today sucked. I'm angry at the game and the weather here blows. But at the end of the day we are still .500. One more note, Affeldt get it together! I don't know if its the pitching coach or Santiago but somebody has to give him a plan at the mound. He opened the game throwing nothing but fastballs. Then he decided that every time he needed an out he'd throw his curve. Which is a good plan, except when you do it for the 5th straight time and everybody in the stadium knows its coming. Once he had given up on throwing all heat and 2-strike curves he decided to throw nothing but mid-80s two seamers with little movement and no better control. Reducing himself to Darrell May. Brilliant.
Look Jeremy here's the plan that your pitching coach should have taught you. Throw your curve for first pitch strikes( hitters don't jump at 1st pitch breaking balls even if they are expecting them), then jam righties with inside heat, and work the outside corner on lefties. After 2 straight fastballs inside throw a changeup. They won't expect it and even if they do their timing will be off since you throw 94mph. If they aren't out by then keep busting them with heat. If they foul it off and your AB reaches 7 pitches then K em with the curve then. The key is to throw first pitch strikes with your hook, and then vary when you use it. Trust your fastball and use your changeup only after busting a hitter with heat. I'd dump that two seam mid-80s garbage you occasionally throw. Stick with the hard stuff.. Don't give em BP fastballs just for the sake of changing speeds. Greg Maddux changes speeds because he has to, and you are most definitely not Greg Maddux.
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| Just so I don't forget... |
| 04.13.04 (9:32 pm) [edit] |
My pre-season picks.. which were documented on the ESPN message board somewhere
NL East: Florida
NL Central: Chicago
NL West: San Diego
WC: Houston
AL East: NY
AL Central: KC
AL West: ANA
WC: Boston
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| Oh no! The sky is falling! We lost.. No we were destroyed. |
| 04.13.04 (2:33 pm) [edit] |
This is the general feeling of bereavement exuded by your average fan after any loss, but especially after a solid whipping. Today the mighty, mighty White Sox clubbed Darrell May like a baby seal to the tune of 7 runs in 5 ineffective innings. This probably wouldn't have happened had Darrell not decided to wet himself with two outs and twice walk Frank Thomas and Carlos Lee to bring up Paul Konerko. The first time Big Paul went fishing, the second he went yard. Boom 3 runs that shouldn't have happened. Other fans gnash their teeth and wail when these things happen. I realize that Darrell pussed out and you don't deserve to win when your starting pitcher is simply afraid to throw a strike. At that point I merely wrote off the game. But there were some things that were important to pay attention to.
Esteban Loaiza has turned back into the pumpkin. If there was one thing that the White Sox didn't need after Colon snubbed them it's a revert in form from Loaiza. Loaiza now has 3 K's in 12IP against 5BB and 5HR with a sparkling 6.00 ERA. Scream all you want sample size, Loaiza is headed towards the realms of Paul Byrd, Jeff D'Amico, John Burkett and several one hit wonders. An event that wasn't even remotely improbable. The old Esteban Loaiza will give the Sox a 5.00 ERA over 190 innings. So the new Sox rotation looks like
Starter ProjERA
1. Mark Buerhle 3.95
2. Esteban Loaiza 5.00
3. Jon Garland 4.50
4. Scott Schoenweis 5.00
5. Dan Wright 5.20
I was friendly to Buerhle btw. But he was a little unlucky last year IMO. Don't talk to me about Garland's 1st start against the Yanks. He walked 7 batters and should have been shredded. Schoenweis has only pitched well out of the pen and if you think adding a 'cutter' will turn him into a stud you are deranged. Wright is garbage.
Let's compare that to the Royals projected rotation
1. Brian Anderson 4.80
2. Darrell May 5.00
3. Jeremy Affeldt 4.00
4. Jimmy Gobble 4.40
5. Kevin Appier 4.50
Thats about as bad as Anderson and May should do given their careers. Affeldt has the best stuff of anybody on either staff by a lot so he may as well have one of the lower ERAs. Gobble's projection is optimistic but he has great control, a big hook, he's lefthanded, throws harder than May or Anderson( albeit not by much) and pitches inside. Its hard to evaluate Appier, given that he was throwing with a torn up elbow last year I think that we can give him the benefit of the doubt and make him major league average. If you average these out the Royals are actually better than the Sox staff, and at least according to early returns the Royals probably have a better pen. I for one don't believe that the Sox will score more runs than the Royals this year. They didn't come close last year and we were the only ones who upgraded our offense. So the final verdict is that we are better than the Southsiders. Period. You can factor in that Kenny Williams and probably Guillen are incompetent and will also cost their team before the end of the season.
This is just one game people. We are 4-3 despite having 2 guys pitch 4 games with an ERA over 9.00. Regression to the Mean is going to give them a couple of really good starts later this month to make up for those shellings, trust me.
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| That empty feeling inside, yeah its an off day. |
| 04.12.04 (8:17 am) [edit] |
Despite that emptiness, today was probably a good day for the Royals to have off. KC's starters haven't exactly been eating innings. In fact our rotation seems to have become bulemic. We've had one start go farther than 5 innings and that was 6 sub-par innings from Jeremy Affeldt. When your starters don't pitch your relievers do. So our pen has been responsible for 24-1/3 of the 55 Innings our staff has pitched this season. That's 44 percent of our total innings pitched and that's too high. We should be trying to squeeze 6 innings out of our starters and trying to get our bullpen's innings load down below 40 percent. Of course there are Royals fans out there who would say: Why? We made some nice acquisitions to bolster our pen and they will probably have an ERA lower than our starters. Wouldn't getting them more innings be a good thing?
No. The Royals bullpen was awful last year. But it didn't start that way. One of the big factors in our 16-3 start last season was excellent pitching from both our rotation and our pen. The offense was not killing the ball so we won several low scoring games. Victories in low scoring games are directly attributable to the firefighters in your neighborhood bullpen. But the hot start by our pen didn't last. Fatigue struck guys like Jason Grimsley and Mike Macdougal affecting their effectiveness. This fatique was attributable to overuse early in the season due to our reliance on young starters. Wisely on Pitch counts our rotation could only go so many innings before Runelvys( hurts himself), Affeldt (gets a blister), Snyder (has a back spasm), Gobble( doesn't pitch against Tampa Bay), and Asencio( Is Swartz'd into Tommy John land) all had to come out due to PC limits. This overburdened the pen and weakened us as the season went on.
So what happens this year? The nice thing is that we have more effective relievers in the pen this year than last year. If we wanted to keep the lead last year than we sent Mac or Grimsley out there and crossed our fingers. Anyone else was pretty much a gamble early in the season. This year we have a pen full of useful guys: Sullivan, Leskanic, Grimsley, Field, Camp, Cerda, Reyes, and eventually Mac. All of them have their uses and potential values. At full strength all these guys are formidable, however. But that's the caveat, at full strength. We saw what happened to Mac and Grims as they were ridden. Leskanic is 36 years old and is not a big innings guy. Sullivan threw more than 400 innings in 4 years for Cincy from 98-01. He's a sidearmer which is a plus but he shouldn't be expected to go 100 again. Field, Camp, Reyes, and Cerda are all relatively new major leaguers and pushing them past 40-50 innings would severely reduce their respective effectiveness.
If we insist on sending our starters out there to pitch 4-5 innings per game we will kill our pen. Our top dogs will wear out, get shelled round the All-star break and then we will beat up our 2nd tier relievers. One of the ideals of Moneyball that caught my attention was from Beane himself on why working the count was important. Beane said that getting the starter out of the game early was pivotal to success. Why? Because starters are better pitchers than relievers( Unless your a member of the M's organization and your last name is Soriano). Throw out ERA's or WHIP's. If you get to a pen early then you will score more runs over 162 games. That's just a fact.
If our starters can grit their teeth and get through 6 mediocre innings than the Royals have the potential to have one of the best park-adjusted bullpens in baseball. With our offense and a couple of league average starters that will let us do what we have done in the first week of the season, win in the last 3 innings. Keep in mind that the Twins won with this formula last year. Guys like Rick Reed, Kenny Rogers, Lohse, and Radke were not the most effective pitcher's in the Central last year. In fact they were very mediocre with ERA's of 4.50 and higher. But they went out there and ate innings. More than 6 per start. And that allowed them to take advantage of an outstanding bullpen that was one of the best in MLB at Adjusted Runs Prevented. The difference between the KC pen and the Minnesota pen using ARP was 63.6 runs. The sad thing about the Royals starting staff was that it outpitched the Twinkies. If you use adjusted Runs Allowed the Royals allowed 4.23 runs per start while the Twins allowed 4.88. So the Royals starters pitched a lot better but simply did not eat up enough innings. The Twins got 51 more innings out of their starters last year. Every 3 games the Twins had one less inning of relief from their bullpen. That adds up. It will add up this year unless our starters pick up the slack.
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| The Phantom Menace: Tigers in 04' |
| 04.11.04 (7:30 pm) [edit] |
If you take a look at the standings roughly one week into this glorious season you may be struck by a few things. The Devil Rays are on top of the East with the Sawx, the Marlins are playing like the world champs, and Larry Bowa is still the doppelganger of Tony Muser leading the mighty Phils to a 1-5 start. But the most surprising result would undoubtedly be the emergence of the Detroit Tigers as the standard bearer for the central. The same Tigers who went 43-119 last year. Thats about as good as your team would perform if you promoted your entire AAA team to the major league level. Maybe worse. One odd aspect of the Tigers performance is they can't be playing against themselves so their level of competition isn't responsible for their fast start. In fact, taking five of six from the Jays and Twinkies is pretty solid for any team. But will it last? I've already..ewww.. heard the allusions to the Tigers as the Royals of 2004. Thanks. But there are a couple of things you need to keep in mind when looking at the Tigers.
You can only upgrade so much in one offseason, unless your the Yankees. The Tigers actually put some major league caliber players in their lineup this year through the magic of free agency. Ivan Rodriguez, Rondell White, and Carlos Guillen were all good acquisitions. Guillen was underrated in Seattle and shouldn't suffer a dropoff as both Safeco and Comerica are pitcher's parks. Rondell White can provide solid .800 OPS range from a corner OF which isn't too shabby. Pudge is the biggest gamble and the biggest upgrade.
Tigers Catchers in 2003
AVG: .190
OBP: .243
SLG: .308
Oh God it hurts just posting those statistics. Brent Mayne would have been a significant upgrade for the Detroit Tigers last year. That's hideous. There are pitcher's in the AL who could put on a mask and beat that line. Our manager would have whipped the Tigers catchers. Ivan Rodriguez hasn't posted an OPS below .800 since 1995. Even with the depressing effects of Comerica park you can expect Pudge to post an OPS around his career mark of .832. Projection for Pudge
125 G .810 OPS
I think Pudge is gonna break down, not this year, but next year and probably for good. But if Pudge is on the DL for more than 35 days in either of the next two seasons than they can void the rest of the deal. So the four year 40 million pact may not turn out that badly for the Tiggs. But the purpose of this post is this year and not next year. Rodgriguez will snag the Tigers 5 more wins then last year. Unfortunately they were 47 games out of first last year.
I didn't mention Fernando Vina in the upgrades section. That's because he isn't. He's an undisciplined hitter with spotty offensive credentials on the downside of his career. He's overpaid and Warren Morris could have done just as good a job at 2nd base. Vina will post an OPS below .700 and maybe below .650 while getting 3 million dollars a year to do it. Thats 1.25 million more than what Todd Walker is getting paid after a pretty successful campaign with the Red Sox last year.
So Vina is neglible, Pudge gives em 5 more wins, White will probably give them 2, Guillen will probably give them another 2 wins( Ramon Santiago was awful), thrown in the fact that Carlos Pena and Bobby Higginson can't play as poorly as they have and that's probably 3 wins combined. So the offense should get them another 12 wins.. Up to 55.
Pitching
This is the biggest problem with the Tigers. They just don't have it in the staff. Here are Alan's 11.
Esteban Yan, Nate Robertson, Al Levine, Jamie Walker, Mike Maroth, Steve Colyer, Jeremy Bonderman, Nate Cornejo, Jason Johnson, Danny Patterson, and Garry Knotts.. oh man.
Ok, Yan is useless his career ERA is 5.38 and his peripherals are awful.
Robertson is alright but nothing special, swingman type, think Kris Wilson.
Al Levine is going to feel the wrath of God via DIPS, he had a low ERA for all the wrong reasons next year.. Think Doug Henry Royals fans
Jamie Walker isn't bad.. solid reliever
I'm a Maroth fan.. I think he could be a slightly above average major league starter.. with the emphasis on the slightly.
Nate Cornejo: He doesn't strike anybody out, he walks guys and his stuff isn't that great... Meet Chris George
Steve Colyer: typical replacement level reliever
Bonderman: Service time insanity, development fubar'd, and he's just not gonna be that effective till he hits arbitration. 3 years he should have spent in I dunno maybe AA at least?
Johnson: Maybe an average starter, gopherball prone, shirked by the pitching thin Orioles
Patterson: Overpaid to be a decent reliever
Knotts: replacement level spot starter/middle reliever
So thats two average type starters, one kid who should be in AAA, a bunch of swing guys, two good relievers, and a some garbage. Urbina will give them a closer who will earn them 1 more win than last year.
I think the Tigers will improve 5 games on the pitching side due to dumb luck.
60 wins!... 17 game improvement, nothing to sneeze at.
But they are 5-1! Clearly you are wrong. I mean they are a .500 type team and that may be enough to claim the Central.. Whoa, lets take a look at that 5-1 start shall we.
Let's take a look at some 'luck' stats. What are the Tigers batting in their first 6 games as a team?
BA: .291.. Yeah that will last. What's their average on balls in play? Maybe they aren't striking out and drawing a lot of walks? BABIP .367.. That's pretty high, that won't last. They've actually struck out more than their opponents and are in the upper tier of the AL in that stat. They are 7th in the AL in BB which is a big improvement over last year. One other thing while I'm on it.. The Tigs have hit 10 homers in 6 games this year, thats a pace for 270 for the year. They only hit 153 all of last year.
Well maybe its the Tigers pitching, maybe they are 'stepping' up? Too bad the Tiger's staff is getting drilled to the tune of an opposing .799 OPS. That's 11th in the AL. So their RA should be 11th correct? Nope they are 4th. Thats right 4th in the AL in RA, facing two good offenses and giving up a lot of baserunners and hard hit balls yet no runs. This ladies and gentlemen is called luck.
Is the early performance of the Tiger's entirely a fluke? No, some of their good hitters are being good hitters but a lot of their mediocre/bad hitters are being productive too. Their pitching is not performing better and if they don't there is no way this team wins more than 60-65 games.
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| Whats up: The old man and the C: Benito Santiago |
| 04.11.04 (3:23 pm) [edit] |
In light of his big time double in the 8th inning today I've dedicated my first post to Benito Santiago. One of the debatable 'upgrades' of the Royals offseason was at the catcher position where this Abe Pagoda facsimile takes over for the offensively challenged Brent Mayne. The early returns on Il Duce are very positive. On opening day Benito had a homer and a double. Through five games Santiago has an OPS of .905, a lot better than expected. Will he keep this up? No. Will he morph into Brent Mayne? No. Will he get hurt? Possibly maybe probably. Should you give 39 yr old catchers 2 year contracts? No. So we shouldn't have signed Benito Santiago right? No, not necessarily.
First you have to understand just how awful an offensive contributor Brent Mayne was for this franchise. In 2 years with the Royals Mayne produced OPS numbers of .619 and .651 respectively in nearly 700 AB's. Those numbers are bad, what makes them really bad is the fact that Kauffman is now the hitter's park of the AL. Bad players should come here and become replacement level. Good players should become forces and so on. So Mayne was an offensive sinkhole in a hitter's paradise. To give you some perspective, Gregg Zaun spent 300 plate appearances with the Royals in 2000 and 2001 as our back up catcher. Zaun posted OPS's of .800 and .913 respectively. His career OPS is .704. His OPS in the K is .867 with an OBP above .400. After being let go by K.C( bad move) he spent two years in Minute Maid Park in Houston( Another hitter's park) and posted a collective OPS below .600. Nice. So why will the ancient Benito Santiago succeed in K.C? Splits and Park Effects.
Benito Santiago hit .279 with an OPS of .753 last year. Thats pretty solid for a catcher. Slightly above league average. But where did Benito play? Pac Bell Park, despite the offensive juggernaut and resume of Barry Bonds, is most definitely a pitcher's park and it depresses offense.
Benito @ home: OPS: .706
Benito road: OPS: .796
The nice thing about those splits is other than the occasional sojourn to Montreal or Denver, there isn't a park that is more friendly to hitter's than K.C.'s own Kauffman Stadium. Once you factor in the fact that he played in Chavez Ravine just as much as Planet Coors those effects pretty much cancel themselves out. Basically you can take Benito's road stats and plug them into K.C. right? If only it were that simple.
Benito Santiago is 39 years old. Most catchers break down in their early-mid thirties. Either they become a 1B or DH if they can really hit or they lose their value all together and retire. Will Benito decline? Probably.. But how much? Physically there may not be a near 40 yr old in better shape than Santiago in the major leagues. The biggest concern with a player like Benito is durability( knees and legs) and bat speed. If Benito's health goes than the contract is completely a bust, however the guy has caught more than 100 games the last 3 years. If his bat speed goes then you will see his average drop, his power vanish, and his K's rise. Its hard to measure this. He hit well in the spring and has hit well so far so it doesn't appear as if he's lost anything there. But once again this is an extremely small sample size. So what's the score.. What's the prognostication.
Benito Santiago: 115 games .753 OPS
Basically I think he'll be as productive as last year with a decline balancing out the park effect he got from Kauffman. This Benito is still worth about 20 runs above replacement level. Brent Mayne was worse than a replacement level catcher. Ultimately signing Benito will probably get us 2 more wins than last year. Is that worth 2 years and 4 million dollars? Definitely this year, next year? Well that may be a different story.
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