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| Billy Butler: Scary Good? |
| 08.09.04 (7:32 am) [edit] |
The Royals may have acquired their best young pitcher before the draft this year in draft and follow Luis Cota, a flamethrowing 19 yr old whom they selected out of high school last season. A 10th round draft pick the year before, Cota's stock rose to 1st round status after a dominant JUCO season and fastball readings around 97mph. The royals wisely opened up the pursestrings and inked Cota for 1 million dollars before he reentered the draft. On account of this splurge, the Royals looked for signability with their first draft pick, Billy Butler.
Butler signed a pre-draft deal for 1.45 million dollars, slightly below slot money at the 14th pick. Butler was/is considered a 1B/DH type with defensive limitations. Scouting reports listed him as an aggressive hitter with lots of power potential. The quasi-sabermetric crowd groaned at the thought of a high school hacker with limited defensive flexibility.. After all we already had one Ken Harvey. I read those snippet reports along with many of the others and chose to ignore them. I appreciate scouting reports but only with statistics to back up their conclusions. It turns out that Butler was selectively aggressive. He drew tons of walks in high school and was hardly ever pitched too. But when he did get something in the zone he went after it like an old school Royals hacker. This is a hitting philosophy shared by another prodigious power hitter, Mr. Barry Bonds.
Well, power potential, plate discipline, iffy defense, projections are all well and good but I usually wait till I see some production before I make a judgment on a prospect.
Here ya go..
Billy Butler (3B)
AB: 170
AVG: .394
BB: 40
K: 39
OBP: .507
SLG: .576
HR: 4
2B: 15
3B: 2
SB: 3
CS: 0
GIDP: 4
From a raw statistical point of view, A) You can't suck if you are hitting .400, and B) You really can't suck if your OPS is over 1.000. But OPS overvalues power and undervalues OBP. So actually Butler is a much more valuable hitter than just a guy with a lousy 1.076 OPS. In fact, Billy Butler is probably the most valuable player in the Pioneer League right now. Since on average he doesn't make an out.
More in depth, there is a scary set of skills here.
A) Plate discipline: 40 BB's in 210 PA's for a fresh high school draftee is the zenith. If this were a tool on a scouting scale it would rate an 80.
B) Hitting for average: This skill has been overrated but it is still the best measure as to how often a prospect will make contact(not necessarily good contact) in the majors. Butler is doing a Ted Williams impression right now. Rate him an 80.
C) Power: Power comes last but Butler leads the team in doubles and is tied for 2nd in HR's. His ISO Power is near .200 which is considered excellent. Rate him a 70.. but considering that young hitters always develop power last.. Essentially this is as good as you are gonna get.
D) Speed: 3 stolen bases isn't anything to write home about but grounding into only 4 DP's for a guy that profiles as a patient slugger is. Rate him a 50 for average.. Doesn't matter but this guy is no Cecil Fielder.
The really scary thing about Butler's skills is how they simply don't match up in the same hitter. Really patient hitters don't hit .400. You have to put the ball in play more and sacrifice getting on base. In addition, the power spikes he has shown don't necessarily correlate to his high BA. Power hitters hit homeruns and hit flyouts, they sacrifice average for extra bases and keep the ball in the air.
I scrolled through recent 1B and looked at their minor league numbers: Thome, Delgado, Giambi, Pujols, Helton, Sweeney, Casey, even Bonds.. None of these guys really matched up with Butler's set as a young hitter or in the minors. Then I remembered a hitter I had already mentioned in this post, Ted Williams. If you are looking for Butler's skill set in the early stages of a ball players career than you are looking at Ted Williams. Williams legacy was plagued by the fact that he was the last man to hit .400. Williams is the posterchild for plate discipline and was an excellent power hitter hitting more than 30 homers in 8 seasons. Ted's 521 homeruns and 2000+ walks are constantly overlooked by the .400 number. His most dominant statistic is his BB:K ratio of nearly 3:1 over his career, a ratio that will never be duplicated over such a span.
I shouldn't be making these kind of comparisons over 170 AB's in advanced rookie ball but the raw skills are there. I don't think there will ever be another Ted Williams, but for this organization, Billy Butler may be as close as we are going to get.
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| Small Update.. |
| 08.09.04 (6:19 am) [edit] |
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Alan Moye, a relatively young OF prospect whom we acquired from the Reds in the Jeff Austin trade has finally reported to the Arizona Rookie League after having more than a year taken away by injury. He's off to a good start with 2BB's, a homer, a triple, and a double in his first 10 AB's.
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| Kauffman Stadium: Baseball paradise, Business nightmare |
| 08.06.04 (9:55 am) [edit] |
I love Kauffman Stadium. To a sports fanatic as myself it is my Mecca. In every other aspect of my life I'm laid back, relaxed, when I trouble zeroes in on the horizon I say " I'll burn that bridge when I come to it," and that's that. This is not the case when it comes to sports. Glasses shattered, holes in walls, books ripped apart, property damage like you wouldn't believe. I'm getting better, but I used to be a real nutcase when it came to bad losses or calls. I've been to more than 10 games in Kauffman over the last 5 years. In that span I've witnessed a 12-1 loss to the Tribe, and a vicious drubbing along the lines of 18-4 by the Jays. Had I have been watching these games at home I probably would have ripped the cable out of the wall. But not at the K. Even in the midst of a slaughter I was just happy to be at the game. The fountains, the sightlines, the ease with which you can park and walk up to the stadium, the scoreboard in center.. I love that park.
After reading that you may be surprised that I am both in favor of renovations and open to the possibility of a downtown ballpark. Kauffman's location is abysmal. There is nothing around the stadium. Baltimore combined Camden Yards with the Inner Harbor and Fell's Point(bars) to create The baseball experience. This is how you should go to a baseball game. Buy your ticket and have the option to spend hundreds of dollars in sports memoribilia stores. I don't care who you the parents are, they loosen up the purse strings to buy their son a jersey at the park. Of course there is one small store in the K with which to buy merchandise and its selection isn't all that great.
If you are a businessman you would have the option of sitting down in one of the several bars and grilles built into Camden Yards or around the ballpark in Baltimore. Good luck at the K, have a hotdog and some beer. After which the Pres would take his clients to one of the several luxury suites built into Camden taking as much advantage as he can from his sizable yearly rental. I think the K may have 10 luxury suites or less.. which is pathetic.
The game itself is a dream in either park, well maybe with the exception of the team on the field but hey, its the experience that counts! Afterwards the O's fans walk into Inner Harbor for the active night life adding to the economic vitality of downtown Baltimore. Royals fans head for the concrete and asphault to drive half an hour or more back to K.C. and their respective homes.
Baltimore gets all this additional cash flow, on top of a much higher ticket price. You pay more to get in, you spend more while you are there, and you stay after its over. This is the business model that most baseball franchises try to delevop.
I don't think there is even remotely enough of a groundswell to build a downtown ballpark. So I'll settle for a renovated Kauffman Stadium with more luxury suites, some bloody restaurants, and some expanded concourses so that I can buy 140$ jerseys in two different stores as opposed to just one.
P.S. I don't live in KS-MO so I'm aware of the hypocrisy of advocating the Bi-State Tax I won't have to pay. But keep in mind that the Pirates and Phils have both built brand new ballparks in the past 3 years that I've had to give up PA state dollars for. Dollars that could have went towards decreasing the annual 10 percent hikes in my college tuition.. Now that I think about it you guys better pass that quarter cent tax you cheap bastards!
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| Catch 22: The issue of instant depth. |
| 08.06.04 (9:30 am) [edit] |
Until the Carlos Beltran deal, the Royals had zero depth behind the plate in their minor league system. Pseudo-prospect Mike Tonis has posted abysmal offensive numbers in AA and is getting old. In response to this talent abyss Allard Baird acquired the 24 yr old John Buck, a large catcher with decent reflexes, a sound defensive background, and some pop. As most young players do when they come up, Buck struggled in his first couple of weeks as the starting catcher of the Royals. This prompted several fans to decry the entire Beltran deal and demand that he be sat down, for all intents and purposes these fans will be called the "Buck Futters." The Buck Futters felt that it was more important to win maybe 2 more games over the course of a 100 loss campaign than to take a chance on a guy who could be our answer behind the plate until 2010. Since then two things have occurred. Buck has started hitting in the short term, and the Royals acquired Justin Huber for nothing. Huber is arguably one of the top 3 catching prospects in baseball despite some questionable defensive skill. He is a gifted hitter and he's really young reaching AAA by age 22. The question then becomes do you hope that Buck morph's into a league average or slightly above average backstop or do you hope that Huber becomes Piazza lite making up for spotty defense with a big time bat?
The answer isn't that simple. All teams have 2 catchers and the backup catcher position has become increasingly more useless for teams in the DH league. The Royals should hand the reins to Buck and hope he becomes their 120-130 game catcher for the next 6 years. For those other 30-40 games a season the first option should be Justin Huber. In addition Huber can can move over behind the plate for Buck whenever we'd want to pinchhit for him. It gives the team and the manager a lot more flexibility. For the 120 games that Justin isn't donning the tools of ignorance he should probably be a left-fielder. His plate discipline could make him a Scott Hatteburg type 1B but I'd prefer him in the OF.
There is one inherent problem with this proposition though, essentially you are asking Justin Huber to give up the marketability he would have as a starter in order to be a regular/utility player. Its going to be hard for him to go into arbitration when essentially we can say he's basically a reserve with no more than X starts at one position. Huber is probably too good a prospect to be stuck in that position. However, the best chance for him to log 140-150 games a season is in this role. It will require careful attention and care with this kid to get him to accept this. Not allowing the kid to play in the olympics for Australia and then asking him to give up a steady role is not the way to go about things. I hope this doesn't end up as ugly as the Carlos Beltran rehab issue of a few years ago. An issue that may have made him more ready to resign a decent contract in Houston than he would have in K.C.
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| Why do I like Chris George? |
| 08.04.04 (11:05 am) [edit] |
Crafty Lefty.. The next Tom Glavine.. Velocity in the low 90's.. Relies on his changeup..
Those were the taglines and descriptions for former top prospect Chris George on his march through the Royals minor league system. Chris George 1.0 through fastballs from 89-91 mph and would occasionally hit 93. He had a dynamite change that would drop like a rock at about 81-83 mph. He didn't have a breaking ball. What? Well how did he ever get to the majors? Grit, hard work, who knows.. He went from the GCL Rookie League to AAA Omaha in 2 seasons. Which is absolutely phenomenal for a high school pitcher. After a short stint in Rookie League after being drafted he rocked the High A Carolina League with 142 Ks in 145 IP and a 3.60 ERA while allowing only 3.29 BB/9 IP. His K rate went down a tad in AA and his BB rate went up but he allowed fewer hits and had a 3.14 ERA over 18 starts. This prompted his promotion to AAA as a 21 yr old lefty where he had some minor struggles with an ERA around 4.80 in limited duty.
George came back the next season at 22 and pitched well enough to earn a callup to the majors with an ERA of 3.53 a passable K rate of 6.64/9IP. George made it to the majors and pitched... ya know, like a rookie with an ERA of 5.59, a bad K rate, a slightly below average H/9 rate, and very good control(?) got me. In 74 IP. George was sent back to Omaha to start 2002 and didn't pitch well.. his ERA was 5.87, his WHIP was high, his K rates were bad, his control was off and this continued all the way into last season where he posted ERA's of above 7.00 in both the PCL and K.C.
What kind of pitcher is George now? Well he throws a fastball, a cut fastball, a curve, and his changeup still appears now and then. His velocity is between 85-88mph with the occasional pop at 90. His curve has some break but he doesn't have a lot of control over it as he developed it from scratch. With the drop of his fastball velocity his changeup has lost a lot of its effectiveness. So why do I like this kid who'll be 25 in a month with fungible stuff who's only claim to a career centers around his leftiness?
Scouting reports on George always remarked on his intelligence. The kid wasn't a jock, he was geniunely cerebral and pardon me if I think that a pitcher can be almost as successful with his head as he can be with his arm. This was a pitcher who was smart enough to spin a two pitch reportoire without overwhelming velocity and no breaking stuff into a meteoric rise from Rookie Ball to the majors in remarkably swift time. He caught my attention at AAA this year because he simply was not giving up homeruns. This led to a decent ERA despite other ugly peripherals and he was promoted to K.C. In 6 starts and 30 IP he gave up 0 homeruns. His K rates, BB rates, and hit rates stunk. But he kept the ball in the park, which is something that even phenom Zack Grienke doesn't have going for him right now with 14 jacks allowed in 70+ IP. I watched George in a few of his starts and he NEVER left the ball out over the middle of the plate. His BB rate indicated bad control but in fact Chris has great control, but his stuff has precluded him from using most of the strike zone. He nibbled and clawed with every pitch, fastball, cut fastball, he'd throw away pitches trying to get his curve across. George was one of the few pitchers I have seen come up with the Royals who knew his limitations and was trying to work around them instead of simply wrecking his mechanics and throwing harder.
Which brings us to the present, George has pitched fairly well his last times out, with K's up and hits down. He pitched 6 shutout Innings with 5 K's last week and followed it up with 5 decent innings and 7 K's recently for Omaha. His K:BB rate for the season down there is approaching 2:1 and he's still keeping the ball in the park. His ERA is 3.52.. He's giving up just 1 hit per Inning, He's allowed 3 homers in 62 IP with 42 K's and 23 BB's. He's improving.
I don't know when Chris George will put it all together. My gut says when he's 29 and picked up by a waiver claim by the Braves and Leo Mazzone turns him into the next Tom Glavine or Jamie Moyer. I seriously doubt it will be as a Royal. But that doesn't mean I stop hoping that it will be while he's still here. I believe that this is his last option year. Next spring training its the last stand for Chris George in Royal blue. I wish him the best of luck.
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| State of the Royals address |
| 08.04.04 (10:26 am) [edit] |
The Royals are 37-67 as of this posting and the trade deadline has passed us by. It goes without saying that this season is completely wasted in terms of wins and losses but it does give the team an oppurtunity to give the young kids a shot. Normally a state of the whatever address covers the past, well our past stinks so I'm going to touch upon our roster, our minor leagues, and future transactions.
Let's start with the roster, position breakouts:
OF:
David Dejesus: First year rookie who has shown decent plate discipline and acceptable range in center. Needs to make more contact and needs to show a little more pop. Play him until he drops.
Ruben Mateo: Former prospect who should be entering his prime, good plate discipline, good athlete, 26 years old. Though you have to be skeptical of his chances this is the org that discovered Raul Ibanez at an older age.
Abraham Nunez: Great Minor League track record.. basically Mateo 2.0. Play both and hope one of the turns into Jose Guillen or at least the good Aaron Guiel.
Dee Brown: Cut him
Matt Stairs: Free Agent at the end of the year. I would have liked to see him traded at the deadline but the NL teams don't have a DH slot and the AL teams simply weren't looking for offense. I'd let him go and not try to resign him. Next year will be a developmental phase also.
1B
Mike Sweeney- Overpaid but underachieving. There are many that believe we should deal Sweeney to get out from under his contract and back problems. They are probably correct. But I don't think there are many GM's out there looking for an aging slugger being paid 11 million dollars a year with a fragile back. I think we are stuck with Sweeney and have to hope that he regains his prior form and health.
Ken Harvey- Sell High! Sell High! If Harvey was a LF, or a RF, or even a 4th OF, then his skill set and quasi-offensive potential would be worth holding on to. However, this guy is still a groundball machine who relies on slap singles to boost his OPS. I do hold one caveat when it comes to Ken, this kid hit .478 in College and has some disgusting minor league averages. Its hard to argue that a guy that hit .390 in the Northwest League couldn't hit .300 consistently in the Majors. He also hit 23 homeruns and drew a good amount of walks as a senior at Nebraska, in fact his OPS was over 1.400.
2B
Tony Graffanino- Signed through next season for 1.1 million dollars. When he was healthy he was a solid average 2B. I'd like to see him return next season and tutor Gotay.
Ruben Gotay- Recently promoted after performing very well at Wichita he will get the bulk of AB's at 2B until Graffy comes off the DL. My boy Gotay, who I've been watching since he was in low-A ball. I think this guy is a Ray Durham clone. He'll be a top 5 AL second basemen for the 6 years he's a Royal. Count on it.
SS:
Angel Berroa: Sink or swim he's it for the next 5 years folks. Or at least until Aviles storms the majors in 2 years.
3B:
Joe Randa: Will be bought out next season and serves no role in the future of the Royals.
Desi Relaford: Bye
C:
John Buck: Has struggled with the bat but has hit ya know, 2 homeruns. Sure he's struck out like Bo Jackson with a bad case of Glaucoma but we are sabermetricians here.. K's don't matter. He has good reflexes, a strong arm, a bad delivery, but he's big and should hit 20 homeruns a year on bad pitches. Buck is what I want from a catcher: he's young, he's solid overall defensively, and he'll occasionally smack a cheap homerun from the 8 or 9 slot in a lineup. Good, that will do.
Castillo/who cares: Exactly
Thoughts: Allard Baird has been making the right press statements in his trade talks. He is looking for a young corner OF with some pop. Which is what this lineup really needs, well it needs a lot of things but that's the first that comes to mind. A rumored deal of Darrell May for Kevin Mench fell through when the Rangers asked for Jimmy Gobble. Is that too much? I dunno, Mench isn't that young and his plate discipline is questionable. But if Gobble's drop in velocity turns out to be permanent we will rue not making this deal. As for the OF's we have, I'm betting that Nunez pans out and surprises, Mateo flops, Dejesus molds himself into a .370 OBP CF which is good enough, and we are left with a gaping hole in one of our OF slots. Gettis has fantastic plate discipline and I think he could hit for power if he ever got the bat on those MLB fastballs. I just don't see it happening soon. A player that I would target is Mets prospect, Victor Diaz. As can be seen by their recent dumps of Kazmir, Peterson, and god bless them, Huber, the Mets are undervaluing their prospects. Especially those prospects who may be suspect defensively at their current position. Diaz was a 2B who has been declared defensively inept. Diaz has a good bat and his value is low right now with his position in the air. I'd be willing to trade them Ken Harvey, or Gettis, or Gomez, or a combination of the three to get him.
One other possible move going into next season would be to make Justin Huber an OF and start him in right or left, just a thought.
Pitching staff:
SP:
Brian Anderson: Yuck we owe him 3.5 million next year. Well I guess hold on to him until he has 3 good starts in a row and then trade him for whatever you can get.
Darrell May: 3.2 million next year.. eh. He strikes out an ok amount of hitters. I think he'll bounce back next year and pitch adequately.. Maybe a 4.70 ERA or something over 200 IP.
Zack Grienke: Stop giving up homeruns.. Thats all.
Jimmy Gobble: I'm tempted to shut him down for rest. I think he is suffering from dead arm. In fact I'd shut him down for the rest of the year.
Jeremy Affeldt: Hire a real pitching coach and put him back in the rotation.
Runelvys Hernandez: Its possible that he could be pitching in the minors in Sept. If he does we will see where he is at stuff-wise.
Kyle Snyder: He's done
Miguel Asencio: His control may have been affected by his injuries. He always had the stuff to be a very good starter.
Denny Bautista: Finally a pitcher who can really rack up K's. This kid would be in my starting rotation next year.
Mike Wood: Got shelled yesterday but's he's a sinkerballer with good control. He can start.
I'd cover the bullpen but we have enough arms there to be alright:
Sullivan
Bukvich
Carrasco
Vazquez
Camp
Field
Macdougal
Wilson
Affeldt ugh...
All of these guys could be useful relievers, some already are. Just take the best and store the auxiliary down at Omaha.
Thoughts: Ideally I'd like a rotation of: Affeldt, Grienke, Hernandez, Bautista, and May. Wood can be in my 5 man too. That depends on Jeremy getting it together, Hernandez being 100 percent, and Bautista continuing to progress. Realistically we will be looking at: Grienke, May, Anderson, Gobble, and Mike Wood... For those Royals fans clamoring for us to sign a Matt Clement.. not happening. There aren't a lot of bigtime arms on the market and you can be sure they won't be coming to K.C. I'd look for the Royals to make a play for someone like Paul Wilson. Baird may want to keep an eye on Estaban Loaiza, if he completely tanks in the spotlight of N.Y. then his market value will plummet and he can be snagged on the cheap. He's a pumpkin this year, but you never know when he'll get the invitation back to the ball.
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