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| "You know these guys ain't so stinking bad" |
| 03.30.05 (4:21 pm) [edit] |
Rob & Rany did a nice piece on the royals lineup where the PECOTA projections had Mark Teahen as the worst hitter for .05 coming in at a .697 OPS. I apologize for copying & pasting this but I'm in the midst of a 100 page thesis so you'll forgive me for sloth.
1. CF David DeJesus .283/.367/.434 2. 2B Ruben Gotay .266/.337/.414 3. 1B Mike Sweeney .290/.364/.478 4. DH Calvin Pickering .272/.400/.543 5. RF Matt Stairs .267/.359/.472 6. C John Buck .263/.314/.432 7. LF Terrence Long .266/.319/.410 8. SS Angel Berroa .265/.310/.409 9. 3B Mark Teahen .251/.322/.375
The nice thing about this list is that this lineup isn't blindly awful and those projections aren't exactly optimistic(with the exception of Cal). #1.. Terrence Long won't hit like that.. he'll be platooned.
vs. Righties(career) .272/.327/.430 vs. Lefties(career) .278/.342/.447
The numbers against lefthanders belong to Eli Marrero if you normalize the averages over a season(straight percentage split) you get this outfielder.(Assuming 28% of AB's vs. lefties)
Terrence Merrero .274/.331/.435
TM is a fairly strong defensive outfielder, his slightly lesser half was a CF in a past life while the half with slightly more offensive upside has been at least spotted in CF from time to time. An above average right fielder with a .766 OPS isn't bad.
The other guy that stinks on this list is Angel Berroa. There seems to be two camps in the Berroa argument and both sides have their share of level-headed pundits and nutjobs. The pro-Berroa contingent points to Angel's ROY season, his migraine troubles, and the sophomore slump of Carlos Beltran. The anti-Berroa collective points out his awful plate discipline, huge defensive decline last season, and pukes at the comparison of Berroa to Beltran. The nutjobs in the pro-Berroa camp believe that Berroa is a superstar in the making, its very, very possible that '03 was Angel's peak year. The asylum dwellers of the anti-Berroa's point to the talents of Andres Blanco, which has its merits defensively, but falls short when you realize that Blanco could probably hit a whiffleball farther than he hits a baseball.
Where does that leave us? Will I'm sort of in the middle. Berroa is like having Ken Harvey at SS with a little more power(enjoy Omaha). I have no illusions that Berroa is going to light the world on fire offensively. I think a .740 OPS with more power than last year is likely. Defensively, I can tell you from the ST games I watched that his range appears back up to where it was as a rookie. He made a couple of nice stabs behind the bag in the games I watched on balls that would have been way out of his reach last season.
I like Teahen, but he has struggled mightily in his first cracks at levels in the minors. There is hope that he could be productive in his rookie campaign but his upside this year is probably Sean Burroughs at best.
Other notes: Buck will hit for more power.. but that OBP will stink. I don't think Stairs will be that productive.. think .770 OPS range. I don't know about that slugging for Dejesus.. and he may hit .270 this season. Sweeney won't be in the lineup for more than 50 games so who cares. Gotay may blow that projection out of the water. Say what you want about ST stats but its probably comparable to the level of competition he would have faced down at Omaha(park FX not withstanding). The thing is.. I always thought Gotay would hit for a nice average, draw some BB's, and hit some doubles.. Basically be a nice slightly above average 2B. I never expected homerun power. And I wouldn't except that I've seen him hit some absolute bombs this spring... I'm talking 400 foot no doubters. There is some stupid adage about doubles turning to homers as you climb the ladder.. if they do for Gotay.. then he is the man. Take what you will from this mini-analysis. My upside for the Royals is still 75 wins tops. But, don't let anybody tell you what your team will do this season. The 2003 team had an outlook about as bleak as this one and they got ass-backwards lucky on their way to 83 wins. When opening day rolls around I don't necessary want everyone to believe, but try to suspend your disbelief for a couple of weeks. If we are 10-21 go back to your cold analytical reality, but if we are game or two below .500 take a chance and cling to the dream. Nothing is impossible.
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| That's 9 scoreless innings in a row for B.A. |
| 03.30.05 (3:43 pm) [edit] |
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Downright spooky I tell ya. Sample size spring training warnings abound, but I didn't think that Anderson could throw 3 scoreless innings in a row let alone nine. Maybe Guy Hansen is a genius. If Anderson posts an ERA below 4.00 this website will have to be retitled to IloveHansen.com. The inadvertent clicks of bad music lovers and child molestors be damned.
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| Its Official: Cal Pickering is batting 4th |
| 03.29.05 (12:24 pm) [edit] |
http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/artic le.jsp?ymd=20050329&content_ id=979840&vkey=spt2005new s&fext=.jsp&c_id=kc
This one is for John Barten, Neil, Kevin @ Kevin's Royals blog, the denizens of the ESPN Royals Message Board, and everyone who pushed for the grass roots 'Free Cal' movement. Special praise for Barten, over at TilYourBlueIntheFace, he's been pushing for the acquisition of Big Cal for years.
This weblog has been hit with a steady dose of reality for far too long. Raise your banner or pennant because today you should be proud to be a Royals fan.
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| Radio reports in K.C. confirming that Cal has made the team |
| 03.29.05 (11:16 am) [edit] |
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Ken Harvey will be optioned to Omaha. This is a great day for Royals fans. The offense will not be historically bad.
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| Why doesn't Roy Press? |
| 03.27.05 (12:04 pm) [edit] |
UNC utilized the press for about 20 seconds and went on an 8-0 run. This team is deeper than just about any in the tournament and has beaten a lot of teams simply by wearing them out as opposed to outplaying them. UNC's half court defense isn't that good so why not press... Either force a turnover or give them the good look they are going to get anyways once they pass halfcourt. The pace of the game is quickened which benefits the wide open style.
I'm a little biased, Dean Smith's best teams were pressing/trapping oriented. The last championship team thrived on it routinely coming back from double digit deficits in a matter of minutes.
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| Gobble fastracked to AAA, Pickering strikes back. |
| 03.27.05 (9:37 am) [edit] |
Jimmy Gobble got lit up against the M's yesterday, flashing both poor control and his complete inability to strike out hitters. The competition for the 5th spot in the rotation should be between Wood & Bautista but it appears as if Bautista is a lock.
Big Cal finally realized that his job was on the line and hit a ball out of the park. Thank goodness that Harvey has been equally inept so the race is still on. Go Cal.
Mike Wood takes the mound today. Keep an eye on how many innings they let him pitch. The Royals are stretching out their starters now, if Wood has any shot at a rotation slot they will let him go 5+ innings.
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| 16-21 from behind the arc..um fluke |
| 03.26.05 (2:12 pm) [edit] |
West Virginia is currently up 10 on Louisville. Louisville has ratcheted up the defensive intensity but WVU keeps hitting 3's. WVU will probably win.. and get a lot of praise, but 3 point shooting is the BABIP of college hoops. Nice job Mountaineers, but you got lucky and you better know it.
This wouldn't disgust me as much except when I see 7 footers roll out behind the arc when they have a clear alley to the paint. That disgusts me.
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| Did he walk? I wish I cared.. |
| 03.25.05 (8:28 pm) [edit] |
What a horrendous basketball game. There is no flow to commericalized college basketball game when the refs get trigger happy. What should have been a classic battle was a tedious stroll through bumper to bumper traffic for 2-1/2 hours. UNC won.. did they deserve it? Probably not.. But for the life of me I didn't remember Villanova doing a single positive thing from halftime till there were 3 minutes left.
Worst officiating ever..
I have no idea how Felton fouled out. He doesn't play defense and he didn't charge 5 times. I look up and he's on the bench.
I'm not sure how every UNC block was a foul while every Villanova block was clean. UNC had the much taller lineup.
I'm not sure how the heck Rashad McCants got on the line for 10 shots.. He should have been there 4 tops.
I'm not sure why I couldn't go 35 seconds without a significant stoppage do to something.
There were at least two fouls with no whistle.
If I had the power.. I'd ask for a do-over. That was an abhorrent game.
The Heels should win ugly again against Wisconsin and should be able to handle UK in the Final Four..
Illinois vs. UNC will probably be the best game of the tournament in the Final.
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| Bizzaro World.. Brian Anderson pitches 4 scoreless innings.. |
| 03.25.05 (4:22 pm) [edit] |
Question: Who is the first pitcher to K Ichiro Suzuki this spring? Answer: Brian Anderson??!!
B.A. rang up 2 more guys and gave up only 2 baserunners in his stint. Mike Macdougal managed not to walk anyone while collecting the save.
Take any ST result with a grain of salt. But the 3 strikeouts are encouraging considering Anderson's typically awful K rates. Score one for Guy Hansen.
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| Appier is so done.. |
| 03.25.05 (11:38 am) [edit] |
Allard Baird's veteran pen presence experiment looks like a failure. Kevin Appier gave up 2 runs on 3 hits in his inning of work as a reliever yesterday. Good luck to the guy and I hope he catches on with another team.
Mike Macdougal walked 2 hitters but still pitched a scoreless inning.
The story of the game was Ruben Gotay hitting his 6th home run of the spring. Gotay has shown more over the wall power this spring than I thought he would develop in his entire career. Since he already has good plate discipline and ability to hit for average his profile keeps improving.
Oh yeah.. Jose Lima pitched too.. Whoopee!
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| Weaver should be available at #2. |
| 03.24.05 (9:34 am) [edit] |
The Angels have supposedly broken off relations with Jered Weaver. Their final offer was 5.25 million over 5 years. Rany Jazayerli ranked Weaver as one of the top 50 prospects in baseball(#16).. without throwing a professional inning. Boras is employed by Jered so the pricetag would be prohibitive. But, even if Weaver costs 7 million dollars that would be less than the difference between last year's payroll and this season's. Glass should commit that money towards the draft.
I saw Weaver pitch a few times, his fastball typically ranges from 88-93 mph. His breaking stuff is very solid. Statheads love his peripherals and compare him to Mark Prior. Jered Weaver is not Mark Prior. Prior has a better fastball, better control, and a better breaking ball.
http://www.sports-wired.com/players/profile.asp?ID=36490" title="http://www.sports-wired.com/players/profile.asp?ID=36490" target="_blank"http://www.sports-wired.com/p...
Jered Weaver is safe. He will require at most.. 1 year in the minors and will fill in as a solid, cheap starter for 3 years. I would be concerned about overwork. Every year I watch the college world series, some Ace starter throws 130 pitches. CSF's relatively early exit may have saved Weaver's arm from too much abuse.
The Matt Harrington principle of diminishing returns will work against Boras here. I suspect that Weaver will accept a 4 million dollar bonus if selected and won't gamble on taking another year away from serious competition.
Dyehardfan's Draft Board. 1. Justin Upton- If he falls, take him. 2. Jered Weaver- Barring injury, the safest pick in the draft 3. Alex Gordon- I really like Gordon, he is having a monster senior year right now and is the big college bat of this years draft class.
Dyehardfan's fear: Cameron Maybin...
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| Affeldt destroyed.. Bautista lit up.. |
| 03.23.05 (6:14 pm) [edit] |
The Royals blew a 15-7 lead in the eighth against the M's in the opening split squad game today. Runelvys started.. went 4-1/3 innings, gave up 3 runs, 2 earned. He struck out four guys though and was reported to have thrown well.
The same can not be said for Jeremy Affeldt.. 2 outs.. 7 hits, 4 runs, and a homer allowed. If he has an option I' d consider using it.
Denny Bautista just gave up his 6th run in 4IP against the Padres. I believe he has only walked one batter but still.. he got lit up. The door remains ajar for the 5th starter role.
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| Don't sign Joe McEwing Allard.. |
| 03.22.05 (11:34 am) [edit] |
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That's all I have to say. It probably won't matter much if you do. Just make Graffanino the utility infielder. Heck, Marrero can play 1st and 3rd. Don't sign Super Joe.
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| No game today.. Braves vs. Mets on ESPN |
| 03.22.05 (11:32 am) [edit] |
If Al Jaffe was as tough on his selection of announcers as he is on Dream Job then Steve Phillips wouldn't be on my TV. Phillips, former GM of the Mets, was mystified by Danny Kolb.
" He just doesn't strike guys out ya know, and for a closer, that is so weird, he should give up more hits."
Search under groundball/flyball ratio.
Hockey man Gary Thorne chimed in too.. His stats have been pretty consistent over the past few years 46 K's at AAA , 39 K's @ Mil in 2003, 27 K's in 2004.. Not a lot of variation.. except when you look at innings pitched.
AAA 2003 K/9 rate: 10.53 MLB 2003 K/9 rate: 8.49 MLB 2004 K/9 rate: 3.30
Throw in his MLB 2002 K/9 rate: 5.62
all over the place. Kolb was legitimately a great reliever in 2003. He was lucky and got drilled in the second half of 04'. Logically, you could predict an ERA in the high 3's this season. But he's working with Leo Mazzone so I'm sure he'll be great.
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| Greinke pitches 4 shutout innings before defense deserts him |
| 03.21.05 (12:46 pm) [edit] |
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You have to listen to the background of WHB 810 to catch any tidbits on the game today. I'd imagine 1 or both of the runs allowed by Greinke in the fifth will be unearned. The discussion in the foreground centered on service time and whether the Royals will leave Gotay and Teahen down in Omaha to retard their service clocks. The discussion was well informed until someone called in about KU basketball. The lengthy and winded disertation from a "mid-major" Division I basketball player from the East Coast boiled down to KU has no heart. I may have bashed KU earlier but I'm not going to go into the mindless banter of intangibles. Most of the star players from high school all the way to the NBA are spoiled primadonnas. Heart really boils down to "doesn't play defense or rebound." An affliction that seems overly prevalent in the NBA. Look I started talking about it.. Don't talk about heart. Talk about FG percentage, turnovers, 3PT percentage, FT percentage, and rebounding.. That's basketball. 5 points, win all those and you win the game. ESPNNEWS just came on ESPN2.. Joe Sheehan, Elliot Kalb, & Rob Neyer are on the hotlist discussing the greatest players ever. This is good stuff. Positional value, winshares, (OBP, defense, baserunning discussed), factors like integration, and hitter's era are being mentioned. Sorry that was refreshing after the heart discussion.
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| Buerhle breaks foot. |
| 03.21.05 (10:40 am) [edit] |
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When I first read the headline I thought, " How insulting is it for a guy to pitch 6 perfect innings against the Royals with a broken foot?" Turns out that Buerhle broke his foot before the game with the Halos while shagging fly balls. Why is Mark Buerhle, a pitcher, shagging fly balls? Did Ozzie want to utilize him as a defensive replacement?
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| It's a cloudy day.. time to bash Rick Peterson |
| 03.21.05 (10:22 am) [edit] |
Rick Peterson is one of the official whipping boys of Royal Revival. That statement will have many statheads gnashing their teeth. After all, Peterson was a pioneer of ASMI and modeling pitchers via motion capture to diagnose stress points and possible injury risks. His pre-hab techniques kept the Big Three healthy during his stay in Oakland. At one point he was being whispered in the same breath as Leo Mazzone, the Greek God of Pitching Instructors.
My first doubts of the wunderkind arrived shortly after his departure from the A's. Beane's reaction basically amounted to a shrug. If Rick Peterson was so good, why would a shrewd talent evaluator like Beane just let him go? It's not like there is a huge free agent market for pitching coaches.. the A's budget was not going to be compromised by giving Rick a raise.
Peterson has been characterized as an ego-maniac by many fellow coaches. This alone may have explained Beane's cooling towards Peterson as really the A's organization can barely support one massive ego in its ranks and his severely outranked Rick's. One symptom of an ego-maniac is an obsession with control. How much control can a pitching coach have? He doesn't dictate the roster or pitching matchups. He takes what he is given and makes the best of it. In Oakland, Peterson was given one of the best pitching trios of a generation, and he kept the engine running. But, I'd imagine he was aware of the same criticism that dogs Beane. "Anybody could win with those three pitchers." Any pitching coach would probably look pretty good with that rotation and the pitcher's park to boot.
Keeping that in mind, moving to the struggling Mets probably looked like a nice chance for Peterson. He'd be working with Art Howe so he wouldn't have to establish his reputation of genius with the manager.
So what did Peterson do when he got to NY? To his credit, I guess.. Al Leiter & Tom Glavine had very solid years. Glavine's peripherals improved a tad, and the Braves didn't hit him like a pinata like in 03. Al Leiter's peripheral numbers got worse.. so basically he got really lucky on balls in play.
Still.. Both guys posted ERA's in the 3's and formed a nice 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. What else did Peterson do?
1) He basically destroyed Jae Seo. Not that Seo was anything great. But he was basically a league average starter before they started tinkering with his mechanics.. No he'll be out of MLB by the end of the year. 2) He began his campaign against young starters with Aaron Heilman. Heilman had the best numbers of any starter in Spring Training last year but was put behind Tyler Yates & Jeremy Griffiths in the cannon fodder category. 3) His input directed the Wilpons(not the GM) to acquire Victor Zambrano for Scott Kazmir.
3) is obviously the big one. Peterson's "your nothing but a bum Kazmir, a lousy bum" speech leaked through certain outlets. This accompanied his belief that he had spotted a flaw in Zambrano's delivery and he could correct it. Unfortunately it turned out
a) Zambrano can't find the strike zone with a compass and Questec. b) Zambrano's arm was shot and he was hurt. Maybe the pre-hab pitching coach could have identified that in his scouting report before the trade?
You notice how I mentioned that it was the Wilpons, the Mets owners, who authorized these trades directly. Jim Duquette was not fired as GM after the horrible season and aborted attempt at contending that cleaned out the Met's farm system. Duquette was promoted to a non-public part of the front office! This is what you do when your underlings tell you something is stupid but you do it anyways. You promote them to shut them up.
Who do you think went to the Wilpons and mentioned the brilliant scouting reports on Zambrano and the scathing report on Kazmir. Gee, I wonder. Art Howe, manager.. gone. Duquette.. no longer GM, new staff.. Wait Rick Peterson is still pitching coach!
I suspect that the recent acquisition of Kaz Ishii was Peterson inspired. Rick doesn't seem to give a damn about walks. I don't know how much input he had in resigning Benson, but the price tag of that acquisition was ridiculous too.
Why do I despise Peterson? Rick was in the A's organization during the renaissance of baseball and the breakthrough of sabermetrics. He was on the groundfloor with the innovators of the new wave. Yet for all intents and purposes Rick Peterson seems to be influencing decisions that would go completely counter to the tenants espoused by those individuals. Rick Peterson should know better. His little Rasputin act with the Mets also gets on my nerves. Leo Mazzone doesn't tell John Schuerholz what pitchers he should acquire. Mazzone works with what he has as every pitching coach should. Sorry for the length on a non-Royals topic.
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| Ishii for Phillips.. |
| 03.21.05 (9:52 am) [edit] |
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The New York Metropolitans officially acquired Victor Zambrano's japanese half brother, Kaz Ishii. In exchange for this testament to the belief that walks don't matter, the Dodgers acquired 28 yr old backstop Jason Phillips. The cursory analysis of this deal would say who cares? A #5 starter for a backup catcher? Good for the Mets. One of the quirks of MLB reporting that I hate is the (numbered) starter setup. Apparently if you are acquired as a #5 starter, its ok if you suck. If you had a post 100 million dollar payroll wouldn't you try to acquire a #3 or 4 starter and make him the fifth guy in your rotation? Wouldn't that better? Sorry, I got sidetracked. Ishii walked 98 hitters and struck out 99. Right there folks, the discussion is over.. This pitcher stinks. No knuckleball, eephus pitch, or third arm delivery is going to raise your peripherals to a point where you are a league average starter. Some office crony will point to his 4.71 ERA. Yeah, but that was in Chavez Ravine, Jose Lima was a "quality #3 starter" in Chavez Ravine. Shea Stadium will prevent Ishii from going completely atomic but his ERA will hover slightly above 5.00. As for Jason Phillips? Last year his batting average was awful. But the Hardball Times revealed that he was possibly the unluckiest hitter in baseball. http://www.hardballtimes.com/... My roomate is a Mets fan so I've become somewhat interested in their organization and roster.. basically because I'm a sadist. Jason Phillips & Ty Wigginton are basically the same caliber of player. Wigginton is your standard 3B who can usually scrape to about league average, nothing special. Phillips can put up similar offensive numbers. At this point you probably consider Phillips as fungible as Wigginton. But, if Wigginton donned the tools of ignorance as a passable catcher, he'd be a significantly more valuable player. Phillips numbers: http://www.thebaseballcube.co... This trade is a minor steal for DePodesta as he sorely wanted to get rid of Ishii while acquiring a player that will give the Dodgers enough production from behind the plate to sow up the NL West.
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| Wood update.. |
| 03.20.05 (2:13 pm) [edit] |
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4IP.. 12 batters faced.. 12 outs.. 4 K's.. Yeah don't let him in the rotation Allard! That would break my freakin heart! 12k's 1BB, a zillion groundballs, a sparkling ERA.. What more do you WANT! FREE MIKE WOOD! Side note: Teahen is hitting .400 this spring while drawing walks, Buck should hit 20 homers this season, if Wood becomes an adequate starter will you people finally be satisfied with the Beltran trade?
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| The march continues.. |
| 03.20.05 (1:07 pm) [edit] |
UNC 92 Iowa St. 65
The heels shot below their season average from the free throw line, the field, and from behind the arc. But they scored 92 points. I have a lot of respect for Villanova but if they don't ditch their running style they will be destroyed like ISU.
The elimination of UCONN pretty much clears the way to St. Louis. As I said, Villanova is no slouch, but the Heels should be a lock for the Final Four. They've already beaten UK&Duke too so you can probably pencil in that Illinois/UNC title game.
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| Bullpen Slots |
| 03.20.05 (1:02 pm) [edit] |
This is the year that the Royals bullpen breaks through. There are just too many gifted pitchers that will be available for innings 7-9, or 3-9 when Lima/Anderson are on the mound.
ST performance 1. Mike Macdougal- He has really looked a lot better this spring. 6.1 IP 4H 8K 3BB 1.42ERA 2. Mike Wood- He won't get the rotation spot he deserves. 10-2/3IP 1 ER.. counting stats waiting 3. Kyle Snyder- Moving Snyder to the pen may keep him healthy. He just doesn't seem to have the physical stamina to be a starter. 7.1 IP 0.00 ERA 0H 7K 2BB 4. Jamie Cerda- 7.0 IP 1.29 ERA 9H 5BB 7K 5. Andy Sisco- 5.0 IP 3.60 ERA 2H 3BB 7K 6. Nathan Field- 5.0IP 0.00 ERA 1H 1BB 2K 7. Jeremy Affeldt- hurt/weak performance
When Affeldt is the only guy struggling, you know things are going well. I'm fairly confident that Hansen will fix Affeldt's problems and make him the dominant reliever he should be. I'm all for the 11 man pitching staff but I think the Royals will go twelve. Rob & Rany railed against this but failed to mention Sisco's need to stay on the roster to remain a Royal. Andy Sisco's rights may be the most pressing roster issue this year as we aren't in any position to contend so I don't mind the expanded staff.
July should mark the end of Anderson and Lima's tenure as Royals. Gobble & Wood join the rotation and Embry gets a callup to the pen. I like what this staff can become.
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| Mike Wood 3-4 scoreless IP |
| 03.20.05 (12:49 pm) [edit] |
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I didn't get a chance to catch the game on the MLB audio feed so this is a pre-stat 'in the dark' review. The Rockies didn't break through till the 5th inning but that was with 2 homeruns off of Tankersley so it can be surmised that Wood was dominant again. If this is the case then he has thrown 10-2/3 Innings and only allowed 1 run, 0 HR, with an impressive K:BB ratio. Other than his velocity there has been one knock on Wood..ugh.. Mike is believed to be a strong pitcher two times through the order but scouts believe that he gets hit hard his third time through. This isn't entirely uncommon for guys who rely on off-speed stuff and breaking balls as their primary arsenal. If you believe the scouts, then Mike Wood should be a very effective long reliever. I'd like to see Wood given a chance in the 5th starter spot in the rotation instead.
In addition to Denny Bautista's strikeout parade towards the rotation, Jimmy Gobble has been mentioned as in the running. Why? Gobble has pitched 6-2/3 IP this spring.. with 2 K's. I think Gobble could be a very solid starter if he could just strike out 5.5 guys per 9 IP. But if he doesn't do that then he better learn a knuckleball.
I already mentioned Dennis "NASA" Tankersley's attempts to put baseballs into space today. His numbers and performance have been awful this spring and its safety to say that one of my sleepers for the season never got off the launching pad.
D.J. Carrasco was optioned to AAA yesterday. I'm tempted to send Cerda along with him due to those BB rates but he continues to K hitters and post a low ERA. Cerda may be one of those relievers that has so funky a delivery that he succeeds no matter what.
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| Devil Ray's Divine Intervention. |
| 03.19.05 (5:39 pm) [edit] |
Chuck Lamar has been driving the Tampa Bay Devil Rays into the ground for quite some time now. The recent offseason saw the inexplicable pickups of also rans Roberto Alomar & Danny Bautista. Alomar was in place to prevent Jorge Cantu from playing 2B. Cantu just turned 23 and is coming off of a .803 OPS in 172 AB's in 2004. He hit 20 doubles! 20! In the outfield, Bautista was in place to be mediocre and block my boy, 24 year old Jonny Gomes. Until today.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=afp-bas eballusaalomar&prov=afp&t ype=lgns" title="http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=afp-bas eballusaalomar&prov=afp&t ype=lgns" target="_blank"http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/n...
The Alomar announcement wasn't that surprising but I'm mildly shocked to hear Bautista retire just after signing that 1 yr 1.9 million dollar deal. The Devil Rays have been saved from themselves.. course they will probably just play Chris Singleton in the OF and see if they can resign Brent Abernathy to play 2B.
This just in! Ken Harvey retires freeing up playing time for Cal Pickering. Hey, a guy can dream can't he?
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| Ambriorix Burgos live.. |
| 03.19.05 (5:00 pm) [edit] |
The Royals lost to Hawk's boys today 3-2. Kevin Appier pitched effectively albeit slowly. Ape actually had a fastball that touched 77 mph at one point. His underwhelming stuff even in the midst of success should doom him to the waiver wire.
Ken Harvey may have put Cal Pickering to bed with a solo homerun today. Harvey hasn't one the job so much as Cal has given it to him. Big Cal is hitting .185 without an extra base hit. I still believe that over 400 AB's Cal would mop the floor with Harvey. But as a manager of non-stat head players you can't justify giving him Harvey's job after this spring.
I was watching the Royals on MLB.TV today and caught a glimpse of Ambriorix Burgos. The guy has a ridiculous arm with a live wire fastball. However, his mechanics concern me. He doesn't use his legs much at all so I'd consider him a strong TINSTAAP injury risk.
P.S. Justin Huisman's weak outing pretty much kicks him completely off the island in the roster crunch.
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| Bucknell! Hah! |
| 03.19.05 (10:34 am) [edit] |
I normally wouldn't engage in this post bashing but one of my reader's (Neil!) spent one full chat informing me how much UNC stinks and how good Kansas is. Bucknell! Roy never lost in the first round.. too bad Bill Self can't say the same. You can't spell sucks without a K and a U.
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| BLISTERS! AGAIN! |
| 03.17.05 (6:40 pm) [edit] |
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Denny Bautista didn't quite close the door on the 5th starter role today. 3IP 1run.. 3BB, 3H, 1K doesn't really do it for me. BUT! He was pitching with blisters on his ring and index finger..whew.. so his control is still..(AFFELDT II) I hope this doesn't become the freaking circus that it was with Affeldt. Bautista did get a lot of groundballs today so that was a plus.
http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/artic le.jsp?ymd=20050317&" title="http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/artic le.jsp?ymd=20050317&" target="_blank"http://kansascity.royals.mlb....;content_id=970374&vk ey=spt2005news&fext=.jsp&c_id=kc
Graffanino might have crippled himself. Our stopgaps are dropping like flies. The Grim Reaper of Free Agency may be dialing up the clock on Teahen and Gotay this season. But at least the team will be more fun to watch.
Sisco also got roughed up a little. But he struck out 2 guys in his inning of work and I'll forgive just about anything if you get me those sweet K's... mmmm.
If you read that first article then you also realize that Jose Lima is our opening day starter.. (Breath in....Release) I'm all for pleasing veterans but this tactic really did wonders with Brian Anderson last season. I don't have to mention the subtle digs I'll be reading on rotoworld and BTF until opening day.
"Misplaced staff ace Jose Lima takes the mound for the Royals on opening day."
"Jose Lima is the number one starter for the Oma-are you freaking kidding me- K.C. Royals."
"Apparently they have already given up resigning Zack Greinke when he hits free agency."
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| Shoot it.. Shoot the J |
| 03.17.05 (10:04 am) [edit] |
Come on Niagara.. You've given OU some fits today but you are only shooting 23% from behind the arc. I figured you guys would shoot at least 40%. 5-21 now I figure 12-30 so you have to go 7-9 down the stretch.
I still hate Pitt and UK is really making me question their 2 seed right now.
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| St. Patrick's Day, Baseball, March Madness.. and Guinness |
| 03.17.05 (9:03 am) [edit] |
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Yes!.. I actually went to my two classes today.. I don't know why either.
Why do I have to watch Pitt play? I picked them to go to the Sweet 16 and I respect their defense and gritty half-court game.. but man I hate to watch it. I have Southern Illinois, Niagara, and New Mexico in the sweet 16... Am I on crack?
I'll be listening to MLB radio to see if Bautista locks up the 5th spot in the rotation today. I feel bad for a guy like Gobble, not because I think he deserves a spot over Bautista, but because a handful of ST innings probably isn't a solid justification for a starting role.
As long as we are on the subject I might as well rip off Aaron Gleeman and list my NCAA pix.
1st round: Illinois, Nevada, Wisc-Milwaukee, B.C., LSU, Utah St., Southern Ill., OSU, Wash, Pitt, Ga. Tech, Louisville, Texas Tech, Gonzaga, WF, UNC, Iowa St., New Mexico, UF, Wisconsin, KU, N.C. St., UCONN, Duke, Miss. St, Old Dominion, Syracuse, Utah, Niagara, Iowa, UK.
Go Heels
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| Zack Greinke unplugged. |
| 03.16.05 (8:28 pm) [edit] |
Some quotes from my new all time favorite baseball player: Zack Greinke.
After being asked if his 3-2/3 IP today was the best he felt this spring.
" No. The best I felt was probably the day I gave up seven runs."
" But today was close."
When asked which day he had his best stuff
" Probably today."
Greinke said later that today was the first game he pitched as if it was a major league game. He was actually utilizing his breaking stuff.
On an unrelated note: My quote of the day comes from Dock LSD over at BTF
[i]The Mets as a team are 24/4 SB/CS -- don't ask me why Andres Galarraga was given the green light, but there he is with a CS.
Willie went to take a piss, and Peterson got Zambrano to sit with him. He then gave Andres the green light, put an arm around Zambrano, and said, "Watch this dude. He runs like you pitch."
Hilarity ensued. [/i]
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/newsb log_discussion/26915/" title="http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/newsb log_discussion/26915/" target="_blank"http://www.baseballthinkfacto...
Between that and the Rick James replay of Chapelle's show I've had my fill of ridiculous laughter for the week.
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| Greinke to Hansen: What! |
| 03.16.05 (1:29 pm) [edit] |
Zack Greinke just completed 3-2/3 scoreless innings against White Sox regulars(for the most part) while showing his exemplary control and remaining on the right side of the rubber.
Dear Guy, If Greinke struggles when it counts.. feel free to coach him. If you mess with his mechanics now, and he struggles this season.. you are done. If everybody else improves... you're still done. Even if there is a perfectly rational explanation( high BABIP, high HR rates, he's only 21) you are still fired.
I think that Guy Hansen is a smart guy and a good pitching coach. But, Rick Peterson was thought of in the same light. Kazmir is the man and Victor Zambrano still stinks, Peterson remains. I no longer think that Rick Peterson is a smart guy, though he may remain a good pitching coach.
And.. I know I'm not a pitching coach, but Hansen's critique( he stands to the right of the rubber and he throws across his body)? Mike Macdougal THROWS across his body. Greinke? Not so much. Greinke had one of the lowest BB/9 rates ever for a 20 yr old starter. His control can't really improve. If you move him on the rubber than he has to find his spots from a whole new area on the mound.
Hansen's critique screams of, "I'm the man and you are doing things wrong." P.S. Mac's mechanics are actually better this season as is his control..(Sample Size!) Keep up the good work.
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| Ryan Braun pitched today |
| 03.15.05 (2:52 pm) [edit] |
Braun was a relief pitcher drafted out of UNLV early in the 2003 draft. He was a little old(24) for the Carolina League but you can't argue with his performance.
IP: 57 H: 48 BB:25 K: 58 HR: 2 ERA: 2.21
I've felt that Braun has been slow played by the organization and probably should have been in AA/AAA by this season. I hope that he reaches Omaha this season and has a chance to be a Sept. callup.
Note: He pitched a scoreless inning today and struck out Jason Dubois.
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| Abraham Nunez..ok ok just shut up |
| 03.15.05 (2:42 pm) [edit] |
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I'll admit it.. I was an advocate of giving Nunez playing time last season after what I thought was a mildly shrewd move in acquiring him. Rudy Seanez was as fungible as you could possibly imagine. Byron Embry, our flame throwing NRI who has been lighting up ST is Rudy Seanez. If you get anything of use for these kind of players in a trade its a plus. Nunez had shown some pop and drew BB's in the minors. Unfortunately he had a very poor record making contact. One of the side effects of the infatuation with plate discipline that infects the stathead community is a general apathy towards the tool of hitting for average. Put simply, statheads started looking at minor league OBP's and ignoring minor league Batting Averages. When you throw in the sabermetric principle that K's are just as bad as any other out then you get a glaring blind spot. There is a subclass of baseball players who can hit for power, draw walks, but can't make enough contact to save their lives. The superstars of this caste become Rob Deer. The everymen of this group resemble Abraham Nunez. Nunez can't hit enough to be a major league outfielder. He needs to be cut and Aaron Guiel needs to get his plate appearances.
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| March 17: Rotation spot on the line |
| 03.15.05 (2:34 pm) [edit] |
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Electric arm Denny Bautista will take the mound in his first start of the spring on Thursday against the 'Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim' or Laaa. Bautista has been unstoppable this spring with 11k's in 7-2/3 IP against only 3BB. He is already the frontrunner for the 5th starter spot.
http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/artic le.jsp?ymd=20050309&" title="http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/artic le.jsp?ymd=20050309&" target="_blank"http://kansascity.royals.mlb....;content_id=963210&vk ey=spt2005news&fext=.jsp&c_id=kc
Bautista is 24 years old so he is passing through the exit out of the injury nexus. He threw 170 innings last year so the risk of dead arm after a full season in the 5th starter role is negligible. The one caveat would be that Bautista has never spent a day in AAA. A problem that has seemed to plague another pitching prospect: Jimmy Gobble. The difference is that Gobble throws 90-91 and makes a living on his leftiness while Bautista throws 98 mph with filthy breaking stuff. Oh and Gobble can't strike out hitters to save his life while I'd be willing to bet money that Denny leads the staff in K's this year if he throws 120 innings. Bautista can live off his arm. If he can keep his pitches in the zone and limit the walks then he will thrive.
One caveat from eternal optimist Dr. Rany Jazayerli of Baseball Prospectus 2005 and Rob & Rany on the Royals, " It would be a mistake if he's in the rotation come Opening Day." Rany was basing this on a poor ERA in the winter leagues. Bautista had a bad ERA but he flashed some of his best control and continued to strike out hitters at a prodigious rate. His DIPS ERA was vastly superior to his actual one. His stuff has been fantastic from all accounts down in Arizona so he's showing no signs of fatigue. His control has been the best its been in his career which is a clear indicator of good health.
If Bautista dominates on thursday then he's in. And I'd appreciate if someone would tell me because I will be blitzed on St. Patty's Day.
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| Lowest Royals ERA in 05': Mike Wood? |
| 03.15.05 (2:18 pm) [edit] |
Mike Wood doesn't have a bigtime fastball. If he did, he still would have had trouble breaking into the talent vortex that has been the A's rotation since the advent of the Big Three. What Wood does have is a propensity for groundballs and very good control.
Minor League Numbers ERA: 2.98 IP: 408.3 H: 377 [b]K: 314 BB: 96[/b]
In the minors he never gave up more than 0.9 HR/9 IP and had a 1.68 groundball/flyball ratio last year. His regular ERA was 5.94 last season but his PERA(courtesy of BP 2005 shipping now) was 4.47. He pitched much better than his normal numbers showed.
Wood has done a very nice job in limited duty this spring. In 6-2/3 IP he has allowed 1 run and struck out 8 hitters against only 1 walk. He's given up some hits but almost entirely on groundballs. I think he has guaranteed his spot in the bullpen but he could probably do a much better job in the rotation than either Jose Lima or Brian Anderson.
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| Just play Teahen... |
| 03.15.05 (2:02 pm) [edit] |
Picking a course and sticking too it seems to be an MO of Allard Baird. From the first press releases of the offseason up until today Baird has remained steadfast with Chris Truby at third base and Mark Teahen at Omaha. Unfortunately, Truby hasn't really done anything this spring because he's hurt.
http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/artic le.jsp?ymd=20050315&content_ id=967632&vkey=spt2005new s&fext=.jsp&c_id=kc" title="http://kansascity.royals.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/artic le.jsp?ymd=20050315&content_ id=967632&vkey=spt2005new s&fext=.jsp&c_id=kc" target="_blank"http://kansascity.royals.mlb....
So Truby is done for seven weeks. Yet Allard hedges on naming Teahen a starter. There aren't seven weeks in March Allard. Denny Hocking or Chris Clapinski could play third.. Or how about Tony Graffanino.. who isn't even fully recovered from his off season surgery? Just give up Allard. Teahen has been drawing walks and hitting for average. These stopgaps probably have to hit the road. Ruben Gotay has been a monster this spring and probably should be starting at 2B.
The worst thing Allard could do is waste his time/resources on trading for another Chris Truby. The extra plate appearances should give Teahen a legit shot at Rookie of the Year.
P.S. If you do decide to waste time on acquiring a stopgap 3B, and the trade involves Ken Harvey.. then I'm ok with it.
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| More Steriods.. |
| 03.14.05 (7:00 pm) [edit] |
At least the other side has gotten a voice out there. Currently I'm watching Will Carroll(of Baseball Prospectus & Under the Knife fame) talk to Donnie Deutch on the Big Idea on CNBC about Steroids.
Carroll extolls the benefits of research and points out that there is no concrete proof that steroids affect performance in baseball. His opponents in the argument are some guy from Cold Pizza and a former Mr. USA. The cold pizza guy was actually rather neutral and made some shockingly good arguments.
a) Mark McGwire wasn't jacked as a rookie, or on the juice yet(according to Canseco anyways) yet still had the ability to hit 49 homeruns before the offensive explosion hit baseball.
b) He also emphasized moving forward.. unfortunately parallel to many of Cap'n Bud's arguments but I agree with the overall message.
Carroll went on to point out a story about a 16 yr old pitcher who has gone on HGH because a scout told him he was too short to be a MLB pitcher. While this tidbit is very Gore-esque the story isn't all that uncommon. Carroll also emphasized a point about sports. He said that expecting sports to do something about this is ridiculous as most events are sandwiched between medical advertisements such as Cialis or Viagra. The overall point I believe is that we live in a medicated society. To draw the line at steroids for professional athletes is hypocritical. I agree with this stance and have said it before.
Deutsch is staunchly against Carroll's stance. He points out another example of a 17 yr old who used steroids and became depressed resulting in his suicide. Donnie claims that baseball players have to set the example to prevent this from happening. That's insane. The drive that pushes kids to do this doesn't come from watching MLB. This is 16+ year old kids who get the impetus from the friend who just jumped 40 lbs on his bench press in the last 2 months. The kid becomes the source and trainer for the new client. Steroids/performance enhancers don't get their momentum from advertising or public attention. These drugs feed off of word of mouth.
Closing.. Congress has more important things to do. I don't care about Steroids. I care about Social Security, stop loss in the military, Iraq, taxes, unemployment, and rising medical premiums. These pontificating congressman are burning time on a non-issue.
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| Spring Training '05 |
| 03.13.05 (1:31 pm) [edit] |
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Sorry for the massive intervals between posts. As the season heats up my reports will be more frequent. I just got back from Spring Break in AZ and caught two Royals games in person while I was there.
The first game consisted of the Cubs absolutely dominating the Royals 4-0.. on Tuesday. Those of you who are familiar with my stuff would probably consider me a stathead. For this week I had to delve into scoutspeak.
Player Reports:
1. Runelvys Hernandez: The first thing that caught my eye was Elvis new fro, the second was his velocity. Hernandez was throwing most of his stuff in the low-nineties. He hit 91 on the radar gun once and probably hit 92-93 once or twice(the radar guns at AZ only clock maybe 1/3 of the pitches) His control of his fastball was very stout and he looked about ready to go. If he can control his slider a bit better before opening day then he should show very little of the lingering effects of TJSurgery.
2. Brian Bass- flashed a nice curve.. but definitely nowhere near ready for MLB
3. Byron Embry- Good velocity- mid 90's with everything along with a fairly good breaking pitch. More on him in the second game.
4. Affeldt- Where are the K's?
5. OF Matt Diaz- Alright folks. I was lukewarm on the crusade to pick this guy up because of plate discipline.. and I stand by it. Diaz is Mark Quinn II. If the pitch is in the zone he will hit the ball with authority but he swings at some awful pitches.
Game 2: Royals 9 A's 8: Zack's impression of Macdougal..
1. Zack Greinke- 4 walks in less than 2 innings.. Well as I was watching I was thinking of the web denizens ripping their hair out over the failure of yet another royals pitching prospect. Relax folks. None of Grienke's stuff missed by that much and if you want my honest opinion.. He's screwing around with borderline pitches to try and see how far off the zone he can get. I saw Grienke walk a guy on 4 pitches.. He threw the same downward plane fastball in the same spot.. 4 times. I've read some of the verbal sparring between Hansen, Pena, and Zack over his somewhat lackluster efforts this spring. I have the utmost respect for Hansen as a pitching instructor but Greinke is one of the most intelligent pitchers ever. Leave him alone. Greinke is trying to get more groundballs and more K's. To do that he has to throw more borderline strikes down and on the corners. During his outing against the A's...Oakland could not get the ball in the air at all.. And Zack would have been fine.. as would the Royals if Teahen's defense wasn't so awful.
2. Mark Teahen- He's made noise with his bat this spring but his reputation has been built on solid defense. Sample Size.. I know.. But Teahen was awful in this game. He threw a relatively easy DP grounder into left field that basically would have killed an inning.. instead it left 1st and 3rd covered with no one out. He also booted a grounder later in the game that could have been a DP that resulted in 1st and 2nd and no one out.
3. John Buck- 25 homers this season.. And a .260 average. He did a nice job throwing out a baserunner on a fastball near the dirt too. He hit an absolute bomb to centerfield in the game I was at.
4. Ruben Gotay- His range is spotty. His bat is nuts. This guy gets it. The Royals have had this weird philosophical cross section in the organization. Veteran hackers have tried to take to plate discipline (Harvey and Berroa). So they take the first pitch no matter what.. and then swing at everything afterwards. Working the count is only a side effect of plate discipline... The true goal is finding the best pitch to hit in every AB, no matter which pitch that is. Gotay has more power than I thought. I saw him hit a homerun that went the same distance as Buck's on a 3-1 pitch.. If Gotay goes to AAA fine, slow that service clock. If he starts now, fine, this guy is a monster.( He has now hit 4 homers this spring)
5. Cal Pickering- Free Cal Pickering has done wonders. Harvey's fluke all-star appearance is being discredited and even Pena has been forced to say nice things about Cal. Unfortunately Cal is stinking up the joint with his play. His defense isn't very good and he isn't swinging the bat particularly well either. The grass roots movement has gotten him this opportunity.. he has to make the most of it.
6. Andy Sisco- The "Tower of Power" pitched in this game.. and man do I like this guy. After watching Sisco throw an inning I wanted to punch Jeremy Affeldt. Sisco doesn't have his velocity, his experience, or anywhere near his breaking stuff. Sisco challenges hitters and uses his long arms and Unitesque arm slot to pound the zone with his fastball and overpower hitters. If Jeremy Affeldt pitched like Andy Sisco then he'd be a pretty good starter instead of whatever the heck he has become. Sisco should be a middle reliever for this team.. He's gonna be something else.
7. Mike Wood- Wood is a sleeper of mine now. He's got a very good minor league track record and if you compare his rookie year to a groundball guy like Mark Mulder.. well.. Wood actually did better. He looked good when I saw him flashing some K ability while still getting screwed by our defense on softly hit groundballs.
8. Mike Macdougal- I've heard of his struggles in other games but his mechanics were sound and his control was good today. I don't know if it will last but he looked well put together for one inning.
9. Byron Embry- Can we dump Carrasco and put this guy in the pen. Good, good fastball. Good breaking stuff. Aggressive pitcher who strikes guys out and pounds the zone. I'd like to see him make the team.
Other general notes: Terrence Long's bat looks slow. Aaron Guiel should start.
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